On Monday, Boris Johnson confirmed the lifting of all restrictions on the 19th; the long-awaited Freedom Day is now less than a week away. We’ve all dreamed of life after restrictions, but we’d expected it to be on a far more positive note. Boris Johnson warned that we must proceed with ‘extreme caution’ from here on out.

There was none of the jubilation we expected, his overall tone felt extremely reminiscent of the original stay at home broadcast in March of last year.

The general public has been warned not to get ‘demob happy’ just yet. This phrase has wartime origins and refers to the elation soldiers feel when they are going to be demobilised and sent home from war. In the context of covid, this parallel serves as a bleak reminder of the losses of the past year.

The approach has been criticised by the shadow health secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, who described the total abolition of restrictions as ‘pushing down on the accelerator while throwing off the seatbelt’. It is certainly a risky move that has been faced with incredibly mixed opinions from politicians, the general public, and medical professionals.

The BMA’s warning

Speaking out about the risks of the government’s rapid removal of restrictions, Dr Chaand Nagpaul of the British Medical Association has warned that: 

‘It’s irresponsible – and frankly perilous – that the government has decided to press ahead with plans to lift the remaining Covid-19 restrictions on 19 July. The BMA has repeatedly warned of the rapidly rising infection rate and the crippling impact that Covid-related hospitalisations continue to have on the NHS, not only pushing staff to the brink of collapse but also driving up already lengthy waiting times for elective care.’

These are indeed all things the BMA has frequently warned the government about. Whether or not the warnings have been heard has been mixed throughout the pandemic.

‘The prime minister repeatedly emphasised the importance of a slow and cautious approach, but in reality the government is throwing caution to the wind by scrapping all regulations in one fell swoop – with potentially devastating consequences.’

It is undeniably concerning that the government is making public health decisions that are diametrically opposed by the views of medical professionals.

The BMA has not been the only medical body to speak out against the end of restrictions. The Academy of Medical Royal Colleges does not usually speak on political issues but broke the usual pattern because they ‘felt it necessary to say caution is vital.’ They wanted to remind people that ‘just because the law changes doesn’t mean that what we do as individuals has to change.’

The exit wave

It is clear that cases will rise again when the restrictions lift. This is not a complex prediction – we have come out of lockdown enough times that even those with no scientific background can easily recognise the pattern. What is less clear is quite how much the cases will rise. This will be the first time we are living without any form of restrictions since the pandemic began, so the details are hazy.

‘Warnings from the government’s scientific advisers suggested that the “exit wave” could result in more than 200 deaths a day and thousands of hospitalisations, though models by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) suggest median projections of about 400 deaths per day.’

There is quite a significant variance in projections from different sources but either way it is a marked increase from where we are now. We have never seen a peak that has not been met with restrictions that aim to hinder them, so we have no clear model from this pandemic on which to base these estimates.

Sajid Javid has told the House of Commons that ‘this is not the end of the road [but] the start of a new phase of continued caution, where we live with the virus and manage the risks … as we make these changes, it’s so important that people act with caution and personal responsibility.’ When pressed on whether restrictions could be imposed again further down the line if cases did indeed rise to a point where they were needed, Javid reluctantly acknowledged that this could not be completely ruled out.

The unfortunate reality of ending restrictions is that there will be no perfect time to do so. Postponing until the 19th of July has allowed for more vaccines to be administered, and the date now coincides with the start of school summer holidays which will also hopefully reduce infections.

Making masks a personal choice

Some people have felt that making masks a question of personal choice is a way for the government to wash its hands of responsibility for any further waves of infection; having made mask-wearing up to the people they will be able to blame the public for any future infections. The Times has even questioned whether herd immunity is the goal, calling it the ‘policy that can’t be admitted.’

For many, this total end of restrictions still feels like it has arrived too soon. Retail and hospitality staff are anxious about dealing with large amounts of unmasked customers. Luckily, they won’t have to worry about that just yet in Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon has already announced the decision to keep masks law in busy public places and on public transport when restrictions otherwise come to an end on Monday.

Final thoughts

Many people remain concerned about the end of restrictions. The fact that this sentiment is shared by the likes of the BMA validates these concerns, which in turn only adds to the worries.

While wearing a mask is a personal choice – and therefore something individuals can easily opt into – the end of social distancing and capacity limits in hospitality venues risks forcing those who are still uncomfortable in busy spaces into their own personal lockdowns. As people socialise more freely, those who are not fully vaccinated or still feel unsafe may withdraw further than they did during restrictions.

There is little to be done beyond continuing to adhere to whatever degree of caution feels right to each individual. As we have throughout the pandemic, we wait with bated breath to see what happens next.

About the Author: Leo Hynett

Leo Hynett is a contributing Features Writer, with a particular interest in Culture, the Arts and LGBTQ+ Politics.